apagartanis's blog

Burnley-Aston Villa

There’s high motivation on the hosts at this one. Bunley currently stands at 16th place, only two points ahead of Everton. They need desperately to win and punters give them most chances, elevating their winning percentage to 53%. That’s way different than bookmaker’s way of thinking. They consider more confident Villa to be the favourite of the match, even if they don’t need any points to avoid relegation. An Asian Handivap bet on +1/4 Burnley is really worthy. More risky is to take straight Burnley win.

Brighton – Manchester United

Man Utd - Brentford

A real mismatch here between Sentibet's "Overall sentiment" and bookie's approach. Average odds for home win stand at 1,75-1,80, giving Manchester United some 55% of winning this. A glance at Sentibet's numbers is enough to note the huge difference, as the Red Devils' winning percentage climbs to 80%. United is much more motivated at this one, as by grabbing all points they'll assure their European cups ticket next season. A home win looks suitable.

Brentford-West Ham

Brentford look in shape after winning three of last four matches in Premier League. By grabbing these 9 points they’ve been out of relegation trouble for sure. They’ve made some serious headlines after thrashing Chelsea by a miraculous 4-1 in their away tie last week, that’s why they’re given equal chances of winning this. But the Hammers seem more solid. They come from a midweek Europa League tie vs. Lyon, but they try hard for a European Cups ticket next season and punters give them a broad 69% winning percentage. A 2(dnb) bet seems comfortable.

West Ham-Everton

There’s a significant difference about the host’s winning chances between the bookmakers and punters. Currently West Ham’s win stands at about 1,80 in 1X2 odds sets, that’s about 60% winning possibility. The “overall sentiment” gives them a large 72% and the “prediction sentiment” is almost the same (71%). West Ham has a stronger motive to grab all three points, as they chase a spot at European cups next year. On the contrary Everton stand nearly at the relegation zone, but has three matches in hand.

Brighton – Norwich

This is a tie without so much point-hunting. Brighton are currently rather safe, 11 points from the relegation zone, and Norwich lies in last place grabbing only 17 points so far from 29 matches. Brighton is expected to win, as they’ve done in the first match (a 3-0 away win). Bookmakers seem to agree, so the 1X2 odds sets seem correct. But the total goal scenario hides something interesting: The 3 most popular exact scores by far are 1-1, 2-1 and 2-0. All these are covered by the “2-3 goals” bet.

Manchester United – Leicester

Leicester – Brentford

There’s an overwhelming backing on the hosts, as shown at al Sentibet “Sentiment” data. The “Prediction Sentiment” gives them a high 62% winning chance and the “Feeling Sentiment” is even higher, standing over 75%. Punters don’t seem to bother about Leicester’s two recent losses, the Premier Leqague one vs. Arsenal (0-2) and the midweek Europa Conference League vs. Rennes (1-2). After all, Leicester still stands higher than Brentford in Premier League table having three matches on hand. A bet on Leicester win seems inevitable.

Aston Villa - Arsenal

Chelsea – Newcastle

Both punters and bookmakers simply agree to Chelsea as a high favourite. A glance at the table is rather clear about the quality difference between them, however there’s much speculation about the motivation. After all this “Abramovich sanctions” story, the hosts would like to answer in their own turf. The visitors have now a comfortable 10-point difference from relegation zone. Even if 1-0 is the most popular exact score here, next six in predictions are Over 2,5 goals (2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 5-0, 4-0, 1-2), so we’ll bet on that.

Everton-Wolves

Brentford-Burnley

A complete disagreement here between bookmakers’ odds sets and punters. Brentford is the bookies favourite with almost 50% winning chances, but punters give a large 54% on Burnley, plus a 25% on draw and only 21% on the hosts. It’s obviously because Brentford has won their last tie vs. Norwich (3-1) and Burnley has lost the last two at home without scoring a goal. We’d bet on a Burnley double chance (X2).

Manchester United-Tottenham

Man City – Man Utd

A high favouritism for the hosts here, according to bookmakers’ 1X2 odds sets. The Citizens are getting more than 70% winning percentage (average winning odds 1,40-1,45), but their chances according to Sentibet are much lower. The “Prediction Sentiment” gives them a 49%, which is more or less equal to United (42%). As for “Feeling” and “Wish”, United has a clear advantage. All 4 most popular “Exact Scores” predict goals for both sides (1-3, 2-1, 1-1 and 1-2), so a “Both Teams To Score” bet seems the best choice.